Saturday, May 09, 2020

Month Two of the Covid Pandemic

March 30th to April 5th

On the weekend of March 30th Aya and I decided to go to a larger grocery store further away to have a good excuse to get on the bikes and do some shopping. We arrived there in the mid-morning and by the time we left about an hour later I was somewhat regretting having gone as we surely had contact with a few people even though shoppers were making an effort to stay far apart. On entering the store we did notice that there was a stand set up with gloves and alcohol for people to use. We did use it. We also noticed that many of the cashiers were wearing facemasks and/or face shields and all registers had large plastic sheets in front of the cashiers to further protect them from direct contact with customers. Many customers were wearing masks as well.








Up to this point we had not worn our masks. Not because we thought we shouldn’t, but rather because we didn’t want to attract any unwanted attention. Since Poles were now starting to do the same we felt it was time to start wearing them. Just by dumb luck we had shipped about 100 high quality masks with us when we moved from Beijing. We had used them there for the pollution and had assumed that here in Warsaw it was sometimes polluted so we brought them. Even though it had gotten fairly bad a few times over the winter we didn’t actually have occasion to use those as during those bad days we were just inside.
In the stores there were also frequent announcements both in Polish and English to distance yourself. In the aisles people were waiting to enter on purpose to give each other space, but by the time we finished there were too many people in the store and I was feeling uncomfortable. Unlike smaller stores that had lines of people waiting to enter and were limited, larger stores had not yet begun to implement a restriction on those who entered, so it was getting a bit packed.

The following day, Sunday the 29th I took a long run in the forest. There were now restrictions on gatherings but not on movement yet. There were many fewer people than I had seen the weeks before, but still plenty of runners and bikers. As I began to come out of the forest the sky darkened and the wind picked up. It felt ominous. On coming out of the tree line there was a police car driving in. I couldn’t understand the message, but it started with “Uwaga, uwaga…” Caution, caution, in a deep male voice. As I rounded the corner near a smaller park there were police on foot. They looked really unusual as they were just standing watching the park and wearing a black mask covering half their face. It felt like I was in some movie about end times and a pandemic… oh wait. 



April 5th to April 12

The following week we were all waiting to hear from the government if they would extend the quarantine until after Easter. This was especially important for me because if they did it would mean that the final days of class with my senior students would be virtual.
Most of the week went normally, or as normal as possible. On Sunday I took a run in the woods, which by this point had been restricted. I thought that I might be able to get away with it. I was wrong. It was a beautiful day and I did not see anyone besides a small deer for the first 10km of my run. As I was nearing the end of the trail I could see two men walking side by side. They were police and I considered just turning around and running back where I’d come since they were a few hundred meters away and did not look about ready to give chase. In fact, my Polish friend had told me that while it was discouraged to bike or run the official statement had actually said that police would not run after you. Being a good American I did not think it a wise move to run away from the police, so I proceeded towards them on the path. Through a mix of Polish and English they politely told me the forest was closed and I politely told them thank you and I would go home.
A few hundred meters later I arrived at the gate of the park where people were arriving, reading the signs and turning away. There too I encountered the police as an unmarked car arrived and a couple officers got out. They were too busy talking to some other people to scold me so I just kept going. It was disappointing to have the forest closed and I dare not to risk going through again, but the street and sidewalk were not closed so I changed to running there as early in the morning as I could to avoid other people. I kept wearing a neckwarmer and using it as a pull up mask for when I did get close to other people, as I had been for weeks. Here too I was in a lucky position because I have numerous masks that I use for running and biking in the winter to make it easier to keep moisture in my lungs.


 



On Tuesday Aya and I decided to go to the grocery near our home. We found that there was a long line and the number of people able to go in was restricted by the number of cash registers a store had, two each register at the time. The line was also spaced by a few meters between people. When we arrived at the front of the queue we saw that there were gloves and alcohol that all people had to wear. It was kind of nice being in the store with fewer people, but I did notice that some items were again missing. This trend would continue in the coming weeks as well, fewer items both fresh and packaged.
We also noticed too that there were patrols by policecars around neighborhoods and a loudspeaker message to be careful, similar to what I’d seen before but now we heard it most days.

I had been chatting with my Polish friend and he told me that he’d gotten a letter from our workplace certifying that he biked through the forest to get to work. I thought this was a great idea and so I went to work on Wednesday to get the letter and sign a few other things. I also figured to run around the perimeter of the grounds, a little over 1km x 10 in order to get my run in with peace of mind that the police wouldn’t stop me.


April 13th to 20th

This week we thankfully had Monday off from regular school work and I finally had a day where I didn’t do any work beyond answering a few emails. I just ran, read, slept, and watched movies with Aya. I made it a point to get up near 5am so I could run quite early and avoid any people. For the most part it worked, but I did see a couple people near 630am and at one point I was running towards another woman on the road and a police car came up behind her. It just turned, but I thought for sure they saw us and just didn’t want to bother stopping us. Still, overall I saw probably 10 people on bikes and running, only one of them were wearing a mask. I admit I wasn’t really wearing it most of the time, but when I’d get near people I would put my mask up to block my breath.
It was great and nice to finally catch a breath from the frantic pace of adjusting to the virtual schooling environment and having to adjust everything forward by a week now that the school had decided to cut our spring break. It was also a bitter sweet week as it would be the last classes I would have with my senior students. As happens each year, it is hard to see them go but also in some ways a relief in my schedule as it means 80 minutes less teaching time each day and I sure could use it these days!

The week progressed fairly normally compared to previous weeks. I worked from home and I went in to the school building just once in the week, on Wednesday. I ran around the grounds about 10 times, then showered and had one more class before biking home at noon. I made it a point to go through the forest to see how many people were there when they shouldn’t be and there were none (except for me, but I had a note so, … I’m good). On the 16th Poland enforced a rule to wear masks everywhere but private places and it seems to be effective. Prior to the 16th the number of people wearing masks or coverings of some kind had been increasing, but was still probably only about 2/3 of people. I was glad to see it. My feeling is to obey the rule, it’s there for a reason. If you break it, ok, but don’t flaunt it and keep to the spirit of it. If there is a runner in the forest alone do they harm someone with their huffing and puffing? No, but please pull your mask up as you pass me by and I’ll do the same.
This whole week a big topic in the US was the roll out of the 1,200 dollar payments to tax filing citizens and others. People had begun to receive the CARES act boost. It seemed that the roll out was slow, starting with lowest incomes first, a good idea. Being so interested in economics I questioned not the payment but what might happen down the road to debt and inflation if this program continued.

Lucky for me there are lots of people that are also at home during the lockdowns and many of them have extra time on their hands. In the prior week I had Mr. Carl Wilkens meet with two of my classes via zoom and then this week I had Mr. Paul Solman meet with two of my classes. I’m sure there will be a few more great opportunities like this. In fact my fellow teachers have set up a conference on the 22nd to get 9 experts including Mr. Wilkens to talk to our kids about peace and conflict. There are some silver linings to all this. Another silver lining has been the Zoom calls we’ve done with people and the emails and chats. We’ve probably been more social, in some ways, than we ever have and though our connections that are new are wilting a bit our entrenched ones are taking deeper root with calls to my mom, old friends and new, and emails and chats to friends and family.





Unfortunately, not all the news was good this week. In the US the curve seemed to be flattening, but at the same time there were protests around the weekend of the 18th where people gathered in large numbers to voice their displeasure at having to be constrained.
At a very minimal level, I get it. You are being told to stop and stand still and for a lot of people that is hard for financial reasons. People need to be cared for and one major area for that is caring for their incomes and ability to pay bills. This protest was not really about that though. These were people who were upset that the government was encroaching on their right to freedoms of movement and perhaps of speech. If a government were doing this under normal circumstances I might agree with them, but these restrictions were not isolated to the US and these are not normal circumstances. Governments all around the world were taking similar if not more extreme measures and these people showed their selfishness and ignorance more than anything else. The cherry on top was that the US president encouraged them, tweeting a few times that states should be “liberated”.




Poland was facing similar stark numbers as more rural American states and numbers did seem to be slowing, but that was after weeks of isolation. Like in America, the government began to talk of opening up. Some governments in the region, Germany, Austria, Denmark were considering some loosening. On a personal level I felt more than ever that we should continue to ride the wave of isolation. It was too early to open things and risk a resurgence. The lessons of 1918 taught us as much. There is good evidence from that pandemic that cities that had the more comprehensive and longer lasting closures faired the best. Then as now people flaunted the rules and protested the restrictions which is why some places opened up earlier than others.  

One thing to look forward to was that the forest was opening soon and I’d be able to legally go running again starting on the 20th, but wearing a mask. That’s ok, I’ve been wearing a mask all winter to keep moisture in my lungs and wearing a mask outside was something we did in Beijing often. I was used to it.

By the end of the week in Poland there were about 9,000 cases in Poland and 360 deaths.



April 20th to 27th
This week was the first one where I was able to really catch my breath. My senior students were gone and most of my other classes were finishing up a weeks long project, so it was mostly managing rather than having to lead and create. On April 24th we learned we would officially extend until May 24th. It was now looking almost certain that we would not return this school year, as most of the teachers already were thinking. There had already been a lot of talk in my teacher friends circles around the world about what the next school year would look like. With a vaccine not in sight and social distancing only playing a role to slow the spread many began to talk about how to bring kids back with distancing or what a renewed year with virtual classes might look like. For the moment much of that is up in the air, but I suspect we’ll see a hybrid where some kids come in and some don’t. Mid-week I had my Zoom conference with many professional speakers coming to talk to your kids and each other on a panel. It was great and actually probably more than we could have done in a traditional setting. Silver linings were appearing. 

I continued to run in the forest and occasionally to go biking as well. There were no requirements to wear masks in the forest and most people took that to their advantage. It freaks me out a little bit, but there aren’t too many people so we can distance. Elsewhere in the city masks were still required and more than 9 out of 10 we did see people with masks on though not always properly worn. Aya was often walking with me or sometimes biking. Even though she was leaving the apartment about as much as before the feeling of everything made it seem like less.


By the end of the week about 12,000 cases were reported in Poland with 550 deaths. Poland’s government began to talk of easing some restrictions, to places like hair styling places and massage places as well as talking of returning young children to schools. Other countries in Europe did seem to be easing as well and taking measures to bring some kids back to school. My former workplace in Beijing saw some teachers and students come back this week, mostly seniors to complete their year with some sort of closure.


 




In the United States things seemed more bleak. The president, musing or seriously, suggested injecting disinfectant or using UV rays to kill the virus and unfortunately a number of people took him seriously and ended up sick. Many states also saw large protests of their lockdown orders, even my own state of Wisconsin. Many people would gather, against state orders, in large groups close to one another to hold signs, flags, and guns to make known their displeasure with the orders. By the end of the week there were about 750,000 cases and 37,000 deaths.




April 26th to May 1st

Things have settled into a rhythm now and while I am sure we would appreciate a change of pace the pace we have is pretty nice. I’ve continued going to school once a week by bike and the other days I’m either running or biking in the morning, mostly in the forest. At the end of this week Aya and I biked to a nearby neighborhood where there is an Asian market. Along the way we passed many people walking, biking, and running. For the most part everyone was wearing a mask but many of the runners were not. Gross.Earlier in the week we attempted a bike ride in the forest, but we turned around since there were just too many people around without masks on.

Work has been mostly the same but there are some rumblings from parents about getting part of their school fees refunded since this is not what the signed on to pay for when they sent their kids to our school. While I can understand that I also don’t see how getting a refund will help in any way. The school is still operating and better than most. The teachers and staff are still employed and working hard. The students are still learning. The big question now is what might happen to enrolments next year. Do parents just not pay and try something else or home schooling? I kind of doubt it. Though our service is not 100% of what it normally would be the alternatives are not very appealing. Every school in the world is facing the same challenges, so it’s not as if you can just jump somewhere else and while online learning options are good they aren’t quite up to the par that most international schools can and do offer in their normal or even virtual environments. Many of us are looking at the long term impacts beyond the virus. If parents refuse to pay the school will suffer now and in the future in terms of recruiting new faculty.


This week we were officially told we are out for the year and are now being told by the administrators that the focus is on next year and what the plan might look like for returning after the summer break. That is hard to tell. The rates of infection have not really be slowing down here in Poland though in other parts of the EU it is. Some countries are seeing restrictions eased. Poland is also lifting restrictions to some degree, but I don’t know why. People are still getting sick. Although, I have to say that there is a good amount of distancing and mask wearing and disinfecting going on.



Nothing much has changed in Poland or the US this week from last. There are more deaths and more cases. Borders are still sealed tightly and the economic impact is still growing. By the end of the week there were 1 million cases in the US and 50,000 deaths, exceeding the number of US soldiers killed in all of the Vietnam war. By the end of the week in Poland there were 13,000 cases and 650 deaths.

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